At time of posting, http://area51.stackexchange.com/proposals/43502?phase=beta has 150 users with 200+ rep (on pace for 79 users at 90 days).

What would cause this to go from 80 to 78 then up to 79 within a 2 hour period?

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2 Answers 2

Those are predictions based upon (what appear to me to be) rather simplistic algorithms operating on the list of current rep and its rate of change.

The tally for all but the top group can go down by people moving up to the next faster than new ones come from the group below. My guess is that someone who was notionally being counted as a 200+ put on a surge of answering and so moved into the probably 2000+ range.

These data are not meant to be compared on even a daily basis, much less hourly.

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agree. better to watch trend than numbers –  Duncan Dec 14 '12 at 12:25

Actually GFH has 62 users with 200+ rep. 150 is the 'goal' for successful launch.

A better way to watch is with a historical daily plot of the actual number of people that are already 200+, which unfortunately isn't provided by SE. The projected number is just a particular algorithm to extrapolate that to give you a guess of where the site will be at. The point is it should be trending up which it is. Looking at other sites, the projection goes away after we successfully cross the 90 day 'first cut'.

Note the 90-day point is the first time SE decides whether to keep the site or not. They used to close quicker and it was decided it takes a while to bootstrap up so they wouldn't bother looking until 90-day point. From answers elsewhere on SE, it appears to me they are more interested in trends than actual numbers with respect to closing down a site. The actual numbers come into play with respect to launching, which could be much, much later. I don't think GFH is in danger of closing for it's avid users number. My worry is more about the hits number, mainly because it's not trending up and my unsubstantiated belief that is the most important number to their business model.

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